The RCM Commodity Update covers all major U.S. commodity markets to ensure you are aware of the main movers among all seven commodity sectors including energies, financials, metals, softs, livestock, grains and currencies. Trading recommendations for both futures and options are based on technical analysis.
Feb 12, 2013
Feb 11, 2013
Feb 06, 2013
Feb 05, 2013
Feb 05, 2013
Jan 23, 2013
Metals: For 4 sessions now gold has failed to get above the 50 day MA; currently at $1695 in February. My stance is prices trade south from current levels dropping back near $1650/1660. I would be eager to be a buyer on that break with clients all things considered. Silver managed a 0.81% gain keeping prices above the 50 day MA but overnight we are down 0.72% as I feel prices will be under that pivot point very soon. If brave enough to get short traders should be targeting a trade back near $30.50 in March futures. Platinum was a very small loser but looking at the daily chart stiff resistance appears to be developing around $1700 in April futures. I like bearish exposure looking for breaks in the coming sessions. I think you could see $30-50 drop with ease…trade accordingly.
Jan 22, 2013
Grains: Exit longs in corn. Prices have rallied 50 cents but have failed to get to higher ground the last 5 sessions. After a 20 cent correction I’d be willing to re-establish bullish trade. Soybeans were the standout in Ag today appreciating 1.57% lifting futures to 1 month highs. There is another 50 cents until I see any major resistance though if we trade lower in the complex all products could get hit. Clients have no exposure on my recommendation. I have a bigger interest in bullish trade in soybean meal…see today’s chart. Wheat failed just shy of $8/bushel and could feel pressure short term. I advised clients to lighten up or leave longs altogether, especially if they we able to take advantage of the most recent 60 cents appreciation. After a trade lower like in corn I would be willing to re-explore bullish trade.
Jan 18, 2013
Livestock: Cold storage and cattle on feed reports next week. April live cattle gave up 3.4% putting prices near 7 month lows. A 61.8% retracement was completed but I’ve yet to act on behalf of clients. I want to be in bullish trade so cattle are on my radar…expect trade ideas next week. March feeder cattle lost 3% on the week as prices approach oversold levels $1.46 may prove to be an interim low on this contract…stay tuned. Lean hogs have settled over their 9 day MA the last 2 sessions as prices may have turned a corner. Aggressive traders could gain light bullish exposure but remember we have reports next week. Cut losses on a close under 87 cents in April futures.
Jan 15, 2013
Currencies: The dollar index is finding support at 79.50 which has held the last 3 sessions…stay tuned. A close back above the 20 day MA which was probed today would set the tone for higher trade in my opinion. The Swiss has already started to move lower and while I think the Cable could hold its own I am willing to gain bearish exposure in the Euro. I advised clients to sell futures and sell out of the money puts 1:1 today. My first objective is 1.3200 though I think 1.3050 is attainable is we fall apart. There is nothing new to report in the commodity currencies at the moment. The Yen gained 0.65% on a bullish engulfing candle as traders could take a stab at inexpensive out of the money calls to play a violent reversal. I am not ready to call a bottom but if we get a bounce do not rule out a vicious 1 day 2-3% pop…trade accordingly.
Jan 14, 2013
Grains: Corn added 2.14% today to close above the 50 day MA for the first time in 2013. In just over 1 week prices have advanced 6% though we should not continue at this pace. Next upside resistance in March futures is seen around $7.30/7.35. If we start to fail around those levels I would look to exit March longs and potentially reverse to play a trade back near $7/bushel…stay tuned. Soybean futures gained 3.26% to erase last week’s losses closing at its 50 day MA. I do not see any serious resistance for another 50 cents but I have not bought into this rally as of yet with clients. I am more interested in owning soybean meal than beans. With an inverted market I think owning bullish exposure in July via futures and options is a better play all things considered. Today I started advising this to Ag trading clients. Wheat is 30 cents of last week’s lows probing the 20 day MA today. The last time prices were above that pivot point March futures were $1 above current levels and I think we could be headed back. I‘ve suggested bullish trade in CBOT wheat from May all the way out until December to most clients.